Love Northern Illinois here first of all let's not get sucked into the rankings on Arkansas defense where they are top 20 in total defense rushing defense and scoring defense. First of all they haven't faced any offenses that are as balanced and as good as Northern Illinois with maybe the exception of Virginia Tech. On average they've faced a 74th ranked total offense while Northern Illinois is 9th. Even worse they have faced an average 82nd rushing offense from ypc aspect and Northern Illinois is ranked 4th in the nation and are averaging 5.75 ypc and it all starts with their veteran offensive line led by 4 seniors and 1 junior. Arkansas State does have 32 sacks, but Northern Illinois has allowed just 9 sacks. Chandler Harnish really has been the difference with his decision making.
I like Ryan Aplin too on the other side, but he's small and tends to give the ball away with 13 INT's on the year while Harnish 62.9%, 26 TD's and just 5 interceptions and a 156 QB rating which is the highest of any opponent that Arkansas has faced. The average opponent was ranked 81st while Harnish is 16th in the nation so you know he can pass the ball too.
Arkansas State will also be playing with an interim coach as their head man took the Ole Miss job. that should offset the fact that this game is closer to their campus than Northern Illinois. Also Northern Illinois gave the ball up less this year was penalized less and was better offensively on 3rd down 47.5% to 44.2% and in the red zone they got their more and scored more. They had 64 att in the RZ and scored 64% of the time and 73% on the road meanwhile Arkansas State got their 61 times and scored TD's 57.38% of the time. Getting off the field is pretty even Northern Illinois 37.5% and Northern Illinois 39.5% but they only allowed 33% in their last 9 games after a slow start. Despite missing two defensive starters today they still are better defense than the stat sheet says.
